Moving Beyond a Single Risk Score

By David Clain

A patient’s health profile is complex and constantly evolving. To truly improve patient outcomes, predictive analytics should incorporate a multi-dimensional view of the patient, focusing on on both clinical and temporal drivers of health status.

Clinical Dimensionality

No single risk score can capture the clinical complexity of a patient. Understanding a patient’s health status requires evaluating dozens or hundreds of distinct risks, including heart failure, infection, and avoidable ED risk. Advanced predictive analytics should capture the complex clinical dimensions of each patient.

Visual model representing the clinical dimensionality of patient management

Temporal Dimensionality

Even the most advanced clinical drivers only capture a single point in time, while health and risk are, of course, constantly evolving. To help providers identify trends and formulate care plans, predictive analytics should illuminate each patient’s health trajectory, providing insight into those whose risks are rising and those whose risks are falling.

Visual model representing the temporal dimensionality of patient management

As an example, let’s take a look at four patients (actual patients, de-identified): Gabriel, Elise, Rachel and Henry. At a single point in time, they have all been identified with a similar one-year mortality risk, as shown below.

list view breakdown of mortality rates over one year for four patients

However, a year-long view of their health risks gives a much different perspective on each patient’s health trajectory:

Graph representing the mortality risk of four patients over the last year

How HDAI Can Help

We have incorporated clinical and temporal drivers into Health Vision, our predictive analytics platform. Unlike offerings that rely on static risk assessments, Health Vision provides:

  • Full risk assessment using our broad and growing suite of predictors, including for rising risks
  • Health trends to highlight worrying trajectories and their causes
  • Chronic condition summaries to reduce the need for “chart biopsies”
  • Utilization review to flag recent encounters
  • Drug fill analysis to highlight critical gaps in prescription fills
  • Preventive care gaps using specialty guidelines, with alerts for high-need patients using our models

 

For more information on HDAI’s Health Vision, please request a demo.

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George Pace

VP Business Development, Payer Markets

George has over two decades of consulting, business development and client success experience in health care, working with both providers and payers to address their most pressing challenges. The bulk of his healthcare career was with The Advisory Board, Optum, Premier and Verisk Health, with a focus on risk mitigation, value-based care and population health management. He is deeply passionate about helping healthcare organizations do their best for their patients and beneficiaries. 

When he’s not working, you will find him playing guitar, riding his bike or spending time with family, friends, and his dog Luna.  

Summer Kramer
VP Clinical Programs

Summer is a clinical pharmacist with over 15 years of experience in the healthcare industry, including hospitals, payors, and start-ups. Summer has focused her career on clinical program development and healthcare analytics with a constant drive to improve patient outcomes.

Residing in the pacific northwest, Summer enjoys hiking, camping, sailing, and traveling. She received her PharmD from the University of New Mexico, College of Pharmacy.  

Karan (Kay) Mansukhani
VP Business Development

Kay has a decade of experience in population health analytics.  Starting his career in Maryland’s state-designated HIE – CRISP,  he was entrusted to set up the infrastructure and data elements needed by health system to achieve CMMIs Triple Aim. Kay is a trained epidemiologist who has a passion for preventive medicine, psychology, and anthropology. Kay enjoys spending lazy days with his wife Sonal, and son Avtar on the beach.  Kay also enjoys listening to podcasts, playing the guitar and badminton. He received his joint MPH MBA from Johns Hopkins University.

Kevin Sampson
VP Finance

Kevin is a CPA with 25 years of executive and managerial experience in accounting, corporate finance, and operations in a variety of industries including medical device, biotechnology, and pharmaceuticals.

By listening and connecting with people, Kevin understands that accurate timely information is vital for everyone in the healthcare system. He received a BS in Accounting and an MBA in Finance and Entrepreneurial Studies from Babson College.

Paul Manberg
VP Clinical and Regulatory Affairs

Paul is an innovative, pragmatic leader with over 40 years’ experience in the medical device and pharmaceutical industries. He has directed clinical trial programs and regulatory activities supporting the successful market introduction of numerous impactful products. He spends his leisure time on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, body surfing and fishing. He received a PhD in pharmacology from The University of North Carolina School of Medicine.

Scott Greenwald
Chief Scientist

With over 25 years’ experience in healthcare research and innovation, Scott is an unprecedented leader in his field, focusing on improved care for everyone. He is an author of over 10 US Patents and over 100 peer-reviewed abstracts and manuscripts. While he’s not immersed in research, you’ll find him playing a mean round of mini golf. He received a PhD in Medical Engineering from the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology (HST).

Josh Gray VP Analytic Services

Josh has 30 years’ experience in healthcare, including The Advisory Board Company, athenahealth, and Boston Consulting Group. Across his career, he has used a wide range of conventional and unconventional data sources to understand and teach the keys to top performance among the nation’s most innovative health systems and physician groups. Josh enjoys music, hiking, traveling, and watching his daughter take part in synchronized skating competitions. He received an MBA from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and an undergraduate degree from Brown University.

Carola Endicott
VP Customer Engagement, Marketing

Carola has 30 years’ experience in healthcare, including HMOs, hospitals, and start-ups. Her knowledge and optimistic outlook in operations and leadership, and her passion for making healthcare workers’ lives easier is what drives her devotion to customer engagement. She received an EdM from Harvard University Graduate School of Education.

David Clain Chief Product Officer

David has vast experience with healthcare customers from his time at The Advisory Board Company and athenahealth. His expertise and passion for statistics, strategy, and innovative analytic insights is unrivaled, as is his devotion to the Duke Blue Devils. Looking for that “aha moment” of positive change is what drives him. He received a BA from Duke University.

Margie Ahearn
VP HR

Margie has 25 years of experience in HR leadership. An avid boater, Margie has received numerous awards for excellence in HR and is always looking for challenges to grow professionally and personally. She graduated with an MBA from Southern New Hampshire University.

Nassib Chamoun
Founder and CEO

Nassib is a data scientist, lover of logistical regression and a serial entrepreneur. Previously, he was Founder and CEO of Aspect Medical Systems, a Nasdaq traded company now owned by Medtronic. Outside of work, he enjoys hosting and honing his cooking skills – specializing in Middle Eastern and outdoor feasts. He received an MS from Boston University.

Phil Devlin
COO

Phil has 30 years of experience in executive leadership. Along his journey he’s made effective and profound change in science. Little known facts about him — he loves traveling with his family, he was in the MD Engineering program at Harvard Medical School and owns 15 patents. He received an MS from Northeastern University.

What guides our culture

1

We are driven to make a profound impact on US healthcare

2

We operate in the best interests of patients and those who serve them

3

We understand and protect patient privacy and health information security

4

We use data science to enhance, but never replace clinical expertise and judgment

5

We are committed to continuous learning and improvement

6

We bring rigor, discipline, and reliability to our work

7

We start with kindness, assuming good intent in others

8

We are committed to building a diverse, inclusive team where all employees feel welcomed and appreciated

9

We are committed to the well-being of our employees and their families

Our vision

We envision a healthcare system where decisions are routinely informed by personalized care profiles and predictive analytics, which will improve the health of individuals and populations.

Our mission

Deploy a versatile analytic platform that creates a shared understanding of quantified health risks to inform actions with the greatest potential to benefit patients.

Who we are

We collaborate with leading health systems and integrated delivery networks, value-based care and accountable care organizations, physician groups, and commercial payers to improve care delivery and population health while reducing costs and making efficient use of scarce clinical resources.

Phil Devlin
COO

Phil has 30 years of experience in executive leadership. Along his journey he’s made effective and profound change in science. Little known facts about him — he loves traveling with his family, he was in the MD Engineering program at Harvard Medical School and owns 15 patents. He received an MS from Northeastern University.